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Economy - security - migration: all better in EU than out

February 13, 2016 10:16 AM
By Antony Hook in Lib Dem Voice

The IN campaign

Antony Hook gives the first part of his weekly round-up of referendum stories

It's the economy, stupid

Small exporters in Britain are suffering due to the risk of Brexit reports the Times.

"Companies are less confident about their prospects than at any time in the past three years, amid fears about the global economy and uncertainty about Britain's place in Europe."

London First say that staying in will boost London by £13.9 billion and several thousand jobs reports City AM.

Previous roundups have mentioned the risk Brexit poses to the pound. Goldman Sachs are now advising to expect a 20% crash in the pound's value if we leave (Guardian).


Business Insider UK reports analysis by HSBC of why Brexit cannot reduce immigration into the UK:

Less than half of inward migration comes from the EU so any government committed to reducing immigration may need a wider policy than just EU exit.

Also, the UK could only restrict EU migration if it took a very hard approach to exit, ie if it were less integrated than Switzerland and did not join the EEA.

Where I live in East Kent, the presence of migrant camps in Pas-de-Calais is a major local issue, as it is nationally. The PM's comments yesterday that Brexit might lead to such camps in southern England attracted considerable attention across the press.

The Mail reported the remarks from the angle of fierce Tory infighting.

A Q&A format article in the New Statesman concludes that the UK border would likely move make from France in the event of Brexit.

Growth and Inflation

Finance Blog The Corner has news from Barclays that the bank sees the referendum and Brexit as damaging the economy.

We believe that uncertainty on the timing of the UK referendum on EU membership and its outcome will have a temporary negative impact on the UK's economic activity, mostly through lower private investment. We expect growth to slow to 1.9% in 2016 from 2.2% in 2015 . We base our forecasts on the UK remaining a part of the EU , but should it vote to leave, uncertainties would persist beyond 2016 and economic activity could be hurt for a more protracted period.

The FT reports an estimate that Brexit would increase inflation by 4%.

Remain to fight crime

Rob Wainwright, head of Europol, says that Brexit would make us less safe from crime and terrorism, BBC (Video).